Likely R: Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, Utah (56). Toss Up: Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska-02, Ohio, Texas (79). Lean D: Arizona, Florida, Maine-02, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (122). Likely D: Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia (82).
Solid D: California, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Vermont and Washington (130 electoral votes). Similarly, an NBC News report with the clickbait headline “ Biden dominates the electoral map, but here’s how the race could tighten” begins with evidence that it almost surely won’t. But the key takeaway is that he’s way behind less than three months out-and, really, way less given that early voting will start in a matter of weeks.
He’ll be “in the hunt” until the election results are known. Yes, Biden has held a relatively steady lead, which makes him a clear favorite.īut in a year in which we are facing unprecedented circumstances, Trump is staying in the hunt. Still, the current difference between the polls at this point and the result isn’t wide enough to suggest Biden has this locked away given how much polls have moved from this point to the election historically. As I’ve noted before, the candidate who leads on the big non-economic issue of the day pretty much always wins in elections not determined by the economy. That said, it’s tough to see how Trump could win if coronavirus is the big issue come voting time. So it isn’t shocking that Trump is holding or may have even gained a point. And although voters don’t like Trump on coronavirus, they like him even less on race relations. The answer to this slight mystery may lie in the fact that issues surrounding race relations have faded from the news.Ĭoverage of protests isn’t anywhere close to where it once was. Biden leads Trump by double-digits on who is more trusted to handle the virus, and the issue is a top one for voters. The fact that Trump’s standing hasn’t gotten any worse may come as a bit of a surprise given the rise of coronavirus cases and deaths nationally. Overall, pretty much every method agrees that Trump has, if nothing else, stopped the bleeding. That the challenger started with a lead and widened it considerably is surely more newsworthy than the lack of momentum change since? Biden’s margin widened at the end of May and beginning of June. The national polling paints a similar picture. There’s simply no evidence that Trump is “within striking distance” of Biden.Įssentially, Biden widened his advantage from May to June following the beginning of the protests after George Floyd’s killing in late May, and it’s not gotten worse for Trump since. Here, Enten is doing what he’s repeatedly cautioned his readers not to do: overreact to the weirdness of 2016. A look at the polls shows that even as coronavirus cases and deaths rise, Trump remains within striking distancing of Biden. Yet, while Biden has maintained advantage, Trump has one thing going for him: His position is no longer deteriorating. Biden has led in poll after poll nationally and in almost every poll in the core six battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). There’s little doubt that former Vice President Joe Biden has the upperhand against President Donald Trump at this point. Official White House Photo by Shealah CraigheadĬNN’s Harry Enten reports that “ New polls suggest Trump’s position has stabilized.” But that’s what happens when a falling object hits the ground.